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I. Unbilled Gas Calculator - Centrica plc
- Major
project to determine the estimates and accuracy (via statistical confidence
intervals) of the “unbilled gas consumption” of all 22m British Gas
UK domestic customers.
II. Standards of Service Liability Payments
- Transco plc
- Standards
of Service Liability Payments - modeling of likely liability payments
for different standards of service scenarios.
III. British Gas Properties Projects
- Critical
path analysis plans for major building projects.
- Costs
database of all building projects, used by Business Unit board to
report to British Gas Board.
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Change management - Staff relocation models during major building
works.
IV. British Gas Regional Projects
Estimation/Forecasting
- Regional
and national British Gas expert on all matters pertaining to estimated
customer gas accounts, with responsibility for maintaining, delivering
and improving systems to provide the best possible estimated accounts
for regional customers.
- Unbilled
Gas Sales.
- Time
Series Forecasting of bias factor for customer accounts estimated Gas
bills.
Supply/Demand
- Parameter
Projection methodology for Gas Demand estimation and temperature correction.
- Identified
a major gas Send Out measurement error existing in the regional pipelines,
then set up a monitoring system to detect Gas Send-Out inaccuracy.
Statistical Sampling/Quality
- Statistical
sampling advice for a key Standard of Service in Customer Accounting
department.
- Statistical
sampling advice: Examination
of methodology, and statistical basis, of Region’s Engineering audit.
Consultancy
- Analysis
of sources of customer bad debt via unpaid gas bills, and advice on
target priorities.
- Advice
on whether to hire or buy major plant machinery.
Calculator
- Creation
of user-friendly redundancy payment calculator, and associated User
Guide, for Personnel.
Management Accounts
- Maintenance
and reporting of regional actual and seasonal normal Gas Sales.(Normally an Accountant’s role.)
Sole Mathematics/Operational
Research/Statistics Regional Resource
- Helping to hold the Regional Estimated Accounts/
Supply/Demand and other key processes together whilst British Gas reorganized
in the mid 1990s, and the regional functions wound down.
- Maintenance
of entire estimated accounts procedures.
- Management
of transfer of procedures to new Business Unit structures.
- Transference
of two Regions’ key historic IT Customer data to Centrica.
- Responsible
for all aspects of Temperature Correction of Demand, to aid Regional
Gas Planning.
- Submission
to HQ of daily Gas Consumptions, when no Grid Control function in place.
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All these tasks were challenging,
non-routine operations, because of the rapidly decreasing levels of
accurate data, and the constant departure of key staff, who were not
replaced.
Network modeling
- Modeled the maximum
and minimum gas pressures in the network (using Fortran), to safely
improve the storage capability within the Gas network.(Potential savings
of £1m pa were identified via safely storing more gas in the UK grid
as LinePack, rather than e.g. via building costly new storage holders
and sites.)
Optimisation
- Analysed
the optimal sizes and locations of the Region's Transport Workshops,
in order to service the Region’s transport fleet most effectively, resulting
in £100,000 forecast savings per annum.
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